Baltimore went into rain-soaked Cincinnati this afternoon and destroyed the Bengals 34-3. The Ravens dominated both sides of the ball, accumulating a 451-155 advantage in total yards of offense. The game wasn't even close. (And it shouldn't have been.) With the win, the Ravens improved to 8-4 on the season, 4-1 in the division, and 7-3 in the conference. They control their own playoff destiny -- if they win the remaining four weeks, they're in. But the road to postseason football could be a bit rocky. So let's unravel the AFC playoff picture!
Here's how the playoff hopeful teams in each division break down:
East (overall record, division record, conference record)
Jets: 8-4, 3-1, 6-4
Patriots: 7-5, 3-2, 5-5
Dolphins: 7-5, 2-2, 5-4
North
Steelers: 9-3, 4-0, 8-1
Ravens: 8-4, 4-1, 7-3
South
Titans: 11-1, 4-0, 7-1
Colts: 8-4, 2-2, 7-2
West
Broncos: 7-5, 2-2, 4-5
OK, so what does this mean?
The Ravens, sitting at 8-4, need, at minimum, two wins in their remaining four games: Redskins, Steelers, @Cowboys, Jaguars. To assume Baltimore will beat the Steelers, even at home, is pretty hopeful. Pittsburgh looks freakin' good. They do everything the Ravens want to do better than the Ravens do it. They run for power better, their QB is better, and, yes, their defense is better. Of course, I absolutely think Baltimore can beat them at home. I just think, conservatively, it's asking quite a lot. Similarly, asking the Ravens to traipse into Dallas and come away with a win in the last game in Texas Stadium history is pretty damn hopeful. A rowdy crowd and a Tony Romo looking to torch a suspect Ravens secondary spells trouble. So that leaves home next Sunday night against the 7-5 Skins and home against the 4-7 Jags as the two most winnable games of the remaining four to reach 10-6.
Thus, I stress this point: Next week is critically important. Baltimore has to beat Washington lest a daunting task lie ahead.
So, what about everyone else?
Well, the Titans and Broncos are almost definitely in as division champs, so we can forget about them. The Colts are almost definitely in as a wild card. Indy's remaining four games: Bengals, Lions, @Jaguars, Titans. They should notch three wins before their huge regular season finale, positioning them to finish 11-5 or 12-4. Either way, that's good enough for the top wild card spot. And even though Pittsburgh's upcoming schedule seems rough (Cowboys, @Ravens, @Titans, Browns), I think with a one-game lead over Baltimore, and with a team that looks poised to make a Super Bowl run, they'll capture the AFC North division.
The East is a different animal. None of the teams are especially standout-ish. The Jets, winners of five games in a row, were headed that way, but they just lost big at home to Denver. Against Pittsburgh at home this afternoon, the Pats' Matt Cassel certainly didn't look anything like the guy who threw two consecutive 400-yard games, so I'm not sold on New England. And I struggle to name five players on the Dolphins, so I can't help lacking confidence about how they'll finish the season. (Buffalo sits at 6-6, and they've fizzled quite noticeably of late. I'm not bothering with them.) The East's upcoming schedules:
Jets: @49'ers, Bills, @Seahawks, Dolphins. Despite losing at home to the Broncos, I don't think it's unwise to assume the Jets can win out. They get to play Buffalo and Miami -- their toughest remaining foes, whom they've already beaten on the road -- at home in East Rutherford. San Fran and Seattle are bad. Let's just assume the Jets win out and take the East Division crown.
Patriots: @Seahawks, @Raiders, Cardinals, @Bills. At 7-5 (and assuming, which I am, that the Ravens finish at least 2-2), it almost does New England no good to go 3-1. If the Pats finish 10-6 (same as the Ravens), it would take an unlikely set of circumstances for the Ravens to lose their wild card tie-breaking advantage over the Pats (Baltimore has a two-game lead within in-conference games). No, for all intents and purposes, the Pats have to win out to have a chance to unseat the Ravens for the wild card. With three games on the road and a dangerous home game against Arizona, that's not an impossible requirement, but it's certainly a lofty task.
Dolphins: @Bills, 49'ers, @Chiefs, @Jets. Same situation for the Dolphins, really. It does them no good to finish 3-1 (to reach 10-6) because the Ravens hold the head-to-head advantage over them. So Miami wouldn't get into the playoffs unless they won out. Considering I'm not sold on the quality of their team -- not to mention that final road game in the Meadowlands -- I just don't think they can (win out).
Phew! Let's pop open the Excedrin. That's a lot of gobbledygook just to say: The Ravens need to win at least two of their last four games to give them a good shot at making the playoffs as the final wild card. Frankly, considering I thought they'd only win four games all year, I'm surprised they're even in this position. It's been hella-fun rooting for this team. But for now, for my sanity and for my patience, I think it's best to call on that most overused of cliches.
Just take it one game at a time. The Skins are next. Bring it on. Manolo, you suck.
In appreciation of your patience, I'll provide you with one last scouting report of Baltimore's upcoming foes:
[Photos 1, 2 and 5 courtesy NFL.com. Photos 3 and 4 courtesy SI.com.]
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